Virginia Capitol Connections Winter 2019

Republican Declines in Virginia 10 By Stephen J. Farnsworth and Stephen Hanna The massive nine-point drop in the percentage of Virginia’s Tenth congressional district voters favoring US Rep. Barbara Comstock (R) since 2016 makes the largely suburban district an unlikely location for a Republican comeback two years from now. Two years ago, Comstock prevailed despite Donald Trump’s unpopularity in the suburbs, obtaining larger shares of the vote than the Republican presidential candidate received in every single precinct in a district that stretches from western Fairfax County to the West Virginia border. Two years into the Trump presidency, Comstock found it much more difficult to separate her political fortunes from the intensified suburban frustrations with Trump’s presidency in 2018. The cartogram that accompanies this column demonstrates how rapidly Comstock’s fortunes declined in the district’s precincts. (Unlike a traditional map, where

Continued on next page As Republicans consider where to mount congressional comeback efforts in 2020, the tenth district is not likely to receive a high ranking. Congressional districts where Trump is more popular as well as districts that have smaller shares of suburban voters are likely to be the focus of GOP efforts to re-flip seats. Comstock continued to receive substantial infusions of Republican campaign cash throughout the fall, despite flagging poll numbers. The Republican who runs in the district two years from now probably will not be as fortunate. Within Virginia, where Democrats took three seats away from Republican incumbents, this is probably the least appealing prospect for a reversal. Republican donors will likely view their money as better spent in Virginia’s Seventh district, which stretches from the western suburbs of Richmond to the western suburbs of Fredericksburg, as well as in the Second district, based in Hampton Roads. Incumbents in those two districts came much closer to winning in this tough year for Republicans than Comstock did. The darker areas show the precincts where Comstock’s support declined the most in 2018, when compared to her 2016 victory. These include many of the precincts in the population centers of the district in western Fairfax and eastern Loudoun, relatively high-density suburban areas that were skeptical of Trump even as early as the 2016 Virginia Republican presidential primary. The lighter areas of more modest decline are located largely in the less populated western areas of the district, including Clarke and Frederick counties near Winchester. Unfortunately for Republicans, one does not win Virginia 10 based on a strong performance in the district’s western end.

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the size of territories represent the amount of ground they cover, cartograms adjust the sizes of precincts to correspond to the number of votes cast there. Remember, acres do not vote, people do.)

Cartogram showing Change in Support for Barbara Comstock, 2016 to 2018

Change in Percent of Vote Cast

Decrease of more than 10 5 to 10 decrease 1 to 5 decrease Less than 1 decrease

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Winchester

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Manassas*

*Manassas City precinct boundaries changed between 2014 and 2016 therefore only results for entire city are shown

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V irginia C apitol C onnections , W inter 2019

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