Virginia Capitol Connections Summer 2019

“If you let me write the procedure, and I let you write the substance, I’ll [beat] you every time.” —Rep. John Dingell By Walt Latham early voting, Virginia elections are likely to break under the strain. The result will then be exactly the

Republicans are also hoping to capitalize on a second Ralph Northam scandal for their campaign strategy this fall; the governor’s inartful explanation of the medical procedures used in medically- necessary, late-term abortions of non-viable fetuses. Republicans have been able to exploit the governor’s comments, both here in the Commonwealth and nationally, to galvanize their base. However, the utility of the abortion issue may be mitigated some by the recent actions by some Republican-controlled states to pass legislation that severely curtails abortion access. Virginia Democrats have been quick to seize on these bills in order to motivate their own base. The abortion war will take center stage in the direct mail campaigns of both parties and will draw support from national interest groups on both sides. Along with healthcare and abortion, Democrats plan to highlight what they will frame as Republican inaction on gun control in the wake of the Virginia Beach shooting are using the power of the governor to force Republicans back to Richmond in a special session to set a political trap for Republicans. Although Republicans killed the same legislation the governor is asking them to consider in committee during this winter’s regular session, under this special session, it will be considerably harder for Republicans to simply kill these bills without debate. The Republican majority will attempt to use their agenda- setting control to steer the conversation towards more Republican- friendly legislation such as criminal justice reform and may even seize the opportunity to reengage media attention on embattled Lieutenant Governor Justin Fairfax, who faces accusations of sexual assault. Both parties will seek to use the special session to their political advantage. As it is no doubt meant to do, the special session complicates the electoral strategies of those Republican members facing competitive elections in the fall. It is unlikely that Republican Party leadership will be open to allowing these members to compromise with the Democrats on an issue that many Republicans and interest groups Uniform procedures are a foundational part of any reputable election system. As Congressman Dingell famously pointed out in the title quote, procedures are important. They can determine whether an election is fair or unfair; accessible or inaccessible; transparent or opaque. Elections have become more complicated and politicized in the past two decades. The essential “product” of an election—an elected candidate—seems to many observers to be a matter of simple arithmetic. The only question that usually matters on Election Night is “Who got more votes?” And then the popular mind moves on to another story or crisis in the news. What is not so easily observed, though, is all of the preparation and resources that local and state governments undertake and expend in order to make an election happen. And it is there—in the preparation—that procedure, or the lack of procedure, can dictate the outcome on Election Night. Procedures, and the resources to successfully, equally, and efficiently implement them, are the most important part of an election. Successfully implemented, they give an election legitimacy. In many ways the current election procedures in Virginia balance access, integrity, and efficiency. However, there is an important change on the horizon that concerns theVirginia elections community: the implementation of early voting. Virginia’s election officials have a “can-do” attitude. In too many cases—with Virginia’s current election procedures—they carry out Virginia’s elections with inadequate resources. Early voting will add to the demands on these resources, and if Virginia does not review all of the procedures and provide the resources necessary to implement Expect a Bruising Election Cycle This Fall from page 18

opposite of what our legislators and the Governor intended with the new early voting law: instead of easier access to the voting booth, there will be confusion, lines, and more difficulties for voters if clear procedures and adequate resources are not provided. The Registrars Association believes that

such as the NRA see as a zero-sum game. That said, intransigence on an issue that enjoys widespread, even bi-partisan support in the public in the full spotlight of a special session may prove to be an electoral liability for these members in the fall, especially because several of the most competitive races in both the house and senate are in the Hampton Roads region. The 2019 election is the first time in modern history that control of both chambers hangs on just one seat changing hands. That, combined with the high stakes of our hyper-partisan political environment, ensures that both parties and their supporting casts will place a high premium on coming out on top this fall. If turnout is similar in its demographic composition to the electorates of 2017 and 2018, Democrats are likely to prevail. However, if the electorate is similar in its composition to that of 2015, before Donald Trump entered the political scene, Republicans may be able to weather this political storm. For Republicans, embracing Trump to boost turnout among Republican base voters might further isolate critical Independents. Meanwhile, Democrats must rely on a “surrogate” governor; bringing former Governor Terry McAuliffe back to serve as the party’s public face and to perform critical campaign functions the party’s current governor is too politically damaged to perform. Due to the tangible and symbolic values of victory for either side, expect records to be set both in terms of spending, especially outside spending, and mudslinging. After all, it’s the newVirginiaWay. Rachel Bitecofer is Assistant Director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University. In her position with the Wason Center she conducts survey research on public policy issues and election campaigns. She has been featured in many media outlets including national outlets such as the Washington Post, Huffington Post, and NPR and she is a regular contributor on CBC Radio. an important part of the procedures for early voting will be standards that safeguard the voters of the Commonwealth and the integrity and reputation of Virginia’s elections. These standards would set minimum levels of service available to voters as localities implement early voting. Without clear standards and procedures there will be no minimum statewide level of access for early voting, which will likely result in uneven, unfair, and inadequate service for many voters. The motivation for the Association to seek these standards is that we anticipate a large percentage of voters shifting from Election-Day voting to early voting. If many of us barely have adequate space or resources for the current system of absentee voting—in which voters must provide a reason to vote absentee—how will our offices, staffs, and resources adjust to a much larger number of voters coming to vote before Election Day? Many of our offices are simply not built for this change. There needs to be a set of standards set at the state level that provides a minimum guarantee of service levels for the state’s early voters. Continued on next page

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V irginia C apitol C onnections , S ummer 2019

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