Virginia Capitol Connections Summer 2019

Expect a Bruising Election Cycle This Fall By Rachel Bitecofer

this fall are the new district maps put into place for the House of Delegates, which House Republicans were unable to get the Supreme Court to overturn. Several districts, predominately in the Hampton Roads region of the state, were invalidated due to unconstitutional racial gerrymanders. The new, court-mandated district maps bring the state’s districts into constitutional compliance, and in the process, several districts currently held by Republicans became more electorally competitive for Democrats, including the seat held by Speaker of the House Republican Kirk Cox. In addition to the House districts that were redrawn, some Republican-held districts in both chambers have simply grown more Democratic-friendly since Donald Trump’s election. As such, several incumbent Republicans “strategically retired,” which refers to the decision not to run for reelection when an incumbent’s likelihood of winning reelection is uncertain. These open seat races create even better pick up opportunities for Democrats because it eliminates the so-called incumbency advantage, which is powered by name recognition and relationships in the district established via constituent services that accrue from serving in public office.

With the GOP trying to hold onto razor-thin majorities in both chambers of the state legislature, and with them, their last influence on statewide political power, the stakes for this fall’s general election could not be higher. Democrats need only two seats to take control and one seat to force ties in both the House of Delegates and the state senate. Should the Democrats prevail in their efforts to flip control of both chambers, they will have a governing trifecta, and will control of the state’s legislative apparatus for the first time since the early 1990s. This would allow them to pass a host of legislative priorities Republicans have been able to use their control of the legislature to

block during the McAuliffe and Northam Administrations. Yet, even with so much on the line for Virginians, turnout for these elections will be low. If history is any indication, somewhere near 30% of the state’s registered voters will cast ballots this fall, although last year’s historic midterm turnout of 59.5% suggests the 2019 turnout may improve over the last cycle without statewide offices on the ballot, which occurred in 2015. The general consensus is that if turnout increases over 2015, Democrats will have a good day while low turnout will favor Republicans. Both political parties are keenly aware of the high stakes this fall, and of the internal and external forces working both for and against their electoral interests. For Republicans, the 2019 cycle will mark the third election

It’s the new Virginia Way. “ ”

Assuming the enthusiasm advantage Democrats have enjoyed since Trump’s election still holds, the most likely outcome this November has Republicans on the defense trying toholdDemocrats back fromany additional seat gains to maintain their General Assembly majorities. Ultimately, retaining control of even one of the chambers will allow them to maintain veto power over the state’s legislative agenda. That said, holding onto either of the chambers will be no small feat for Republicans as Democrats have many paths to the majority in both chambers that must be

defended. This means that 2019 will play out as a multiple front war, and given the stakes, it will most likely push out the boundaries of the already strained “VirginiaWay.” For their part, Republicans are hoping the cycle’s historically low turnout, which has tended to favor Republicans, helps them hold onto to the seats they need to maintain their majorities. Republicans are also hoping to offset the Democrat’s anti-Trump advantage by capitalizing on the so-called “Top Three” scandal, which Republicans hope may depress Democratic turnout. But Republicans have struggled to capitalize on the “black face” scandal for two reasons. First, it is difficult to triangulate a compelling message to Independent voters that condemns Ralph Northam for conduct in his distant past while simultaneously defending President Trump for his contemporaneous scandals. Second, the issue of race is particularly thorny for Virginia Republicans who are fresh of the heels of nominating Corey Stewart for the Senate in 2018. See Expect a Bruising Election Cycle This Fall , continued on page 20

cycle of the Trump Era, which has thus far produced two electoral shellackings powered by high turnout from enthusiastic Democrats, motivated to vote by anti-Trump backlash. The first of these was in 2017, when Democrats secured the governor’s mansion for another term by a 9-point margin. The so-called “Blue Wave” was so large its reach not only extended to the two other two statewide offices, it also swept 15 Republican members of the House of Delegates out of office, dramatically reshaping the power differential in that chamber. Next came the 2018 midterms which had the same dramatic effect on the state’s congressional delegation; flipping three House seats to the Democrats, including two seats in what had been Republican-friendly territory. Today, seven of the state’s eleven members of Congress are Democrats, up from just three in 2015. In Northern Virginia, only one Republican member of the House of Delegates remains in office, having survived his 2017 reelection by a margin of just 100 votes. Further complicating the electoral picture for Virginia Republicans

WCVE (Richmond, Charlottesville)—Sunday 9 a.m. WBRA (Roanoke, Lynchburg)—Sunday 10 a.m. WVPT (Harrisonburg)—Tuesday 5 p.m.

WHRO -World (Norfolk)—Tuesday 5 p.m. • Thursday 5:30 p.m. ARC TV (Southwest Virginia)—Wednesday 1:30 p.m. & 7:30 p.m. Norfolk’s Neighborhood Network, TV-48 —Sunday through Thursday 5 a.m. & 8:30 p.m. Thursday & Friday at 10 p.m. • Saturday at 5 p.m. Suffolk Network, TV-190 —8:30 a.m. & 5:00 p.m. daily Weekly show information is on Facebook— THIS WEEK IN RICHMOND Past shows may be found on YouTube. For more information: http://ideastations.org/tags/week-richmond

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