VCC Magazine Spring 2018

Gerrymandering and Population Changes in Virginia By Stephen J. Farnsworth and Stephen Hanna

Virginia is now two-thirds of the way to its next round of redistricting and recent changes in the Commonwealth’s population and voting patterns will make it very difficult for Republicans to draw lines that will allow them to retain their legislative majorities after the 2020 Census. Thanks to aggressive and highly effective line drawing by Republican map experts after the 2010 Census, the current House of Delegate district borders gave the GOP 66-34 seat advantage as recently as last fall. Antipathy with Trump and a revived Democratic Party cut the Republican margin to 51-49 after last November’s elections. Even worse news for the GOP comes

gains, with Northern Virginia far outstripping the rest of the state. The taller the jurisdiction, the greater the population gain. Areas in dark blue mark larger increases in Democratic vote share when comparing the 2013 and 2017 gubernatorial elections, while light blue symbolizes smaller gains for the party. Areas where Republicans gained a greater percentage of the vote in 2017 than in 2013 are colored dark red for larger gains and light red for smaller gains, but the flatness of these red counties demonstrate little population growth—and in some cases a net loss of residents since 2010. Put simply, flat areas will lose seats and tall areas will gain seats in the next round of redistricting. The dark red counties of southwest Virginia, where Republicans have registered the strongest gains in recent elections, are likely to lose the most. Other populous areas also seem likely to gain influence in 2021. If current population trends continue, greater Richmond, including the city and neighboring Chesterfield and Henrico counties, will end up with an additional House seat in 2021 (or at least most of an additional seat). Northam also won all three of these jurisdictions last year. Hampton Roads is in line for at least half of a new House district in the next census, with relatively large population gains inVirginia Beach and Chesapeake. Northam won both of these cities last year. One more reason that the lines drawn in 2021 will not look like those 2011: Democrats now control the governor’s mansion. Even if the current narrow Republican majorities in both chambers survive the 2019 elections and get to draw the next set of legislative maps, Gov. Ralph Northam can veto any Republican plan that is not acceptable to Democrats. So what are Republicans to do? The answer is simple: adjust to a changing Commonwealth by changing one’s message. The party will soon suffer being in the legislative minority if it cannot do better in the suburbs. In today’s Virginia—and even more so in tomorrow’s Commonwealth—economic, traffic and education concerns are likely to fare far better than bashing immigrants, focusing on abortion and emphasizing the protection of Confederate statues. The willingness of many Republicans to consider a Medicaid expansion plan this spring suggests some of the party recognize the party needs to shift its policy emphasis. Stephen J. Farnsworth is professor of political science at the University of MaryWashington, where he directs the Center for Leadership and Media Studies. Stephen Hanna is professor of geography at UMW.

Farnsworth

via the US Census population estimates for Virginia, which shows large gains in and around major cities and little population growth in rural areas. Between 2010 and 2016, the federal government estimates net population gains of more than 51,000 people in Fairfax County, more than 50,000 in Loudoun County and more than 40,000 in Prince William County. These are no longer “swing” counties: Gov. Ralph Northam (D) carried all three last November by double-digit margins. With the net population gains in Arlington County and Alexandria City, which are even more supportive of the Democratic Party than those three counties, this increasingly Democratic part of the state has already seen enough population growth to lead to two additional House of Delegate seats when the lines are next drawn in 2021. These population gains will generate another Senate seat in Northern Virginia delegation as well after the next Census. Right now, the GOP holds a 21-19 margin in the upper chamber, with the next elections in 2019. Of course, if the last four years of this decade present population changes comparable to 2010-2016, NOVA may end up with three new delegates in 2021—as well as gaining the lion’s share of a second additional Senate district. The map below illustrates this changing Virginia. The height of each county or independent city represents the size of the population hanna

V

Virginia Population Change and Voting Trends Virginia Population Change and Voting Trends

Faifax County (+51,161) Prince William County (+41,628) Faifax County (+51,161) Prince William County (+41,628)

Population Change 2010-2016 Population Change 2010-2016

Loudoun County (+50,124) Loudoun County (+50,124)

Change in Support for Democratic Gubernatorial Candidates 2013 - 2017 Change in Support for Democratic Gubernatorial Candidates 2013 - 2017

+50,000 people +50, 00 people

5% to 7.35% increase 0% to 4.99% increase 0% to 4.99% decrease 5% to 9.99% decrease 10% to 12.88% decrease 5% to 7.35% increase 0% to 4.99% increase 0% to 4.99% decrease 5% to 9.99% decrease 10% to 12.88% decrease

Chester eld County (+15,603) Chester eld County (+15,603)

+25,000 people +25,000 people

0 people 0 people

Virginia Beach (+11,739) Virginia Beach (+11,739)

Henry County (-1,942) Henry County (-1,942)

Roanoke City (+2,297) Roanoke City (+2,297)

Tazwell County (-1,711) Tazwell County (-1,711)

Wise County (-1,378) Wise County (-1,378)

V irginia C apitol C onnections , S pring 2018

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